Modelling of the formation of grapevine yield in Ukraine under climate change scenarios A1B and A2 until 2050 (on example of grapevine varieties Zagrey and Rubin tairovskyi)
Abstract
G.V. Lyashenko*, O.L. Zhygailo, V.V. Vlasov, N.A. Mulyukina, I.A. Kovalova, E.B. Melnyk and Iu.Iu. Bulaieva
Aim: Evaluate the possible change in agroclimatic resources and the resulting grape yield in the Forest-steppe and Steppe zones of Ukraine until 2050 under the impact of climate change.
Methods: The trend in global and regional climate requires a revision of crop placement in the country. One of the possible solutions is evaluation of agroclimatic resources according to different scenarios of climate change.
Results: The article presents the results of actual studies in possible changes of agroclimatic resources until 2050 under scenarios of climate change A1B and A2 and the conditions for the formation of grapevine yield of medium-ripening variety (Zagrey) and late- ripening variety (Rubin tairovskyi) using the dynamic modeling method. The calculations were performed based on meteorological stations data of Ukrainian hydrometeorological network, located in the Forest-steppe and Steppe zones.
Conclusion: Shift features of the grape phenological stages, temperature and rainfalls, indicators of photosynthetic activity and productivity of grape in the natural zones of Ukraine until 2030 and 2050 under two climate change scenarios compared to the base period (1986-2005) were estimated.