Abstract
S.V. Stankevych*, Yu.V. Vasylieva, L.V. Golovan, I.V. Zabrodina, N.V. Lutytska, Yu.O. Nakonechna, O.A. Molchanova, Yu.Yu. Chupryna and L.V. Zhukova
Insect populations are complex open biological systems with the chaotic illinear dynamics in space and time. The forecasting of their development in the future is not a simple task. Suffice it to recollect the “unexpected”, “sudden”, and “unpredictable” massive breeding of a number of insect pests. The purpose of the work is an attempt to identify the regularities of the mass reproductions of insects by analyzing the historical data about them, since in recent years the problem of catastrophic events, or the so-called in synergetics the aggravated regimes in illinear systems has become quite urgent, when one or more quantities that characterize the system, eventually have grown up to the infinity. A vivid example of this fact is the “unpredictable” massive reproductions of insects. By means of conducting the theoretical synthesis of the information about the regularities of the population dynamics of the most common insect pests, which is based on the past and the present, the analysis of the contemporary ideas about the dynamics of insect populations and the theories that explain the seasonal and annual changes in the number of the insects has been carried out. The emergence of the parasitic, climatic, trophic and other theories has become a logical historical stage of the environmental researches; they respectively reflected the methodology of that or this period of the populations’ ecology development. The existence of the theories explaining the dynamics of the populations on the basis of their interaction with one or two factors of the environment can only be temporary, because the facts that do not keep within the bounds of these theories are continuously accumulating. In the ecology of insects there is the necessity of the theoretical synthesis, which foresees the emergence of a new theory, in which the limitations of the former theories are dialectically removed. Each scientific theory must perform the descriptive, explanatory, synthesizing, and, most important, prognostic functions, but the mentioned theories of the populations’ dynamics do not correspond to this requirement. To create a theory that explains the reccurence and cyclic character of the insects’ mass reproduction, the synergetic synthesis is required. Such synthesis should take into account the system legitimacy of the insects’ development and their interaction with the systems of higher level of organization, the illinear population dynamics and chaos, the aggravated regimes and the limited prognoses. The chronicles and the regions where the most significant outbreaks of the harmful insects’ massive reproductions are noted, provide an opportunity to analyze the polycyclic character, synchronousness and illinearity of the populations’ dynamics.